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Will China and Taiwan join the Comprehensive & Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership?
The Canada West Foundation (CWF) asked me and some other Asian trade watchers the following question:
On trade, Canada’s best path forward in Asia is expansion of the TPP*, the more the better. With the Biden administration putting trade on the back burner to protect its domestic agenda and mid-term election prospects Canada’s best chances of expanding the agreement lie elsewhere. The UK has already begun to apply and the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu is prepared to apply as well. China has also floated hints of being interested. What are pros and cons for Canada of Chinese Taipei and mainland China joining? What are the likelihood of having either enter?
My reply, included in Edition 064 of CWF’s China Brief, was as follows:
Expanding the CPTPP’s membership would boost the competitiveness of Canadian exports in more markets. Taiwan would make a terrific addition to the pact and has already signalled its interest in joining. That said, current members will weigh the economic benefits of admitting Taiwan with the undetermined cost of antagonizing Beijing, which has opposed Taiwan joining the World Health Organization and becoming a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
