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It’s difficult to imagine India as an aging society, given that it has — by far — more young people than any other country on earth. Within Asia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong all have significantly greyer population profiles. Indeed, India is still at an early stage of demographic transition, with only around 10% of its population over the age of 60. But the share of the population that is over 60 is expected to almost double to nearly 1 in 5 by 2050.
Factors contributing to this pronounced aging trend are late marriage, greater longevity and declining fertility. India’s national fertility rate has already fallen below the replacement level. Modeling carried out by the University of Washington estimates that the country’s population may peak at around 1.6 billion in 2048, when the over-60 population is expected to exceed 300 million. From that time, India’s population is expected to decline by nearly one-third to around 1.09 billion in 2100.
What does it mean for India?
These trends have profound implications for the South Asian giant’s economy, labor force and society. Research conducted in other countries that have aged faster than India shows that older workforces are less productive on a per-worker basis, contributing to lower economic growth. India’s demographic…
