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I’ve recently shared reasons why many governments are not systematically using Strategic Foresight despite the many advantages of doing so. Yet I could have written something similar about businesses failing to factor the future into their planning. According to research carried out at the University of Houston, only one in four Fortune 500 firms are practicing Foresight through in-house efforts.
The management consulting gurus at BCG have seized on this private sector shortcoming in a post jointly authored by Hans Kuipers, Alan Iny and Alison Sander. They observe that most businesses do multivariate modeling (a statistical tool using multiple variables to forecast possible outcomes). Virtually all companies have procedures or systems in place for risk management and business continuity. However, note the consultants, a good number of businesses are excessively focused on the near term and rely too heavily on familiar patterns at the expense of counterintuitive ones.
This is because companies have not built the capabilities to deal with uncertainty, including sensing skills needed to reveal critical trends that can create or destroy value. Many businesses also lack processes to evaluate and prioritize strategic options and use them creatively.
